New Models and Decision Support Tools for Improving Management of Stream Ecosystems Under a Changing Climate
Time: 12:00-1:30 PM Mountain Time
Presenter: Dan Isaak, US Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station
Collaborators: Seth Wenger (Trout Unlimited), Bruce Rieman (Rocky Mountain Research Station), Charlie Luce (Rocky Mountain Research Station), Erin Peterson (CSIRO Mathematical and Information Sciences), Doug Peterson (US Fish and Wildlife Service), and Brett Roper (US Forest Service)
Anthropogenic climate change may have profound effects on stream biotas, most of which are ectothermic and live in networks that are already heavily fragmented by human development. Concern over potential impacts is driving strong inter-agency collaborations and development of extensive monitoring networks and accurate models for downscaling broad climate patterns to key habitat variables. We provide examples of two such models that provide detailed predictions of stream temperature and hydrology under various climate scenarios across large portions of the Rocky Mountains.
New decision support tools have been developed that integrate outputs from these models to provide information at spatial and temporal scales relevant to management. Even as the resolution, accuracy, and amount of data available to inform management decisions increases, however, key uncertainties remain. For aquatic biotas, these include documenting biological responses to long-term climate trends and estimating minimum habitat configurations below which population persistence is unlikely. Once biological responses are better understood, risk management through strategically targeted conservation actions will be able to proceed more efficiently than is presently the case.
Flexibility in management responses will be required to bolster populations where it makes sense to do so, but managers will also have to accept the inevitable losses of some species from portions of historic ranges and expansion of new species into local aquatic communities.